According to provisional figures released today by China’s National Bureau of Statistics, the economy rose by 8.9% on a year earlier in Q3 2009. The first quarter had seen an increase of 6.1%, the second 7.9%. The main factor behind the acceleration in growth is likely to have been the government’s massive stimulus package, alongside generous lending by the banks who jacked up lending by more than 31% on a year earlier in the past quarter. Current indicators suggest that economic momentum will gather further speed, at least in the short term. The national purchasing managers’ index reached 54.3 points in September, its highest level since April 2008. The positive assessment shown by the export orders sub-index raises hopes of a growing boost to growth from foreign trade. Against this backdrop we have lifted our forecast for real growth this year from 7.5% to 8.2%.
China: Economy moves up another gear – thanks to stimulus package
In the course of next year we expect the government to start gradually reining in its stimulus measures. In particular, we expect lending to be appreciably more moderate. Given this year’s lending splurge we see a risk of a marked rise in non-performing loans in the medium to long term. The Chinese banking watchdog evidently shares this view, having recently urged the country’s largest banks to increase writedowns on delinquent loans substantially.
Gregor Eder
tel.: 49 / 69 / 2 63 – 5 33 58
e-mail: [email protected]