As the Chinese National Statistics Office announced today, provisional estimates show the Chinese economy growing by 10.3% on a year earlier in the second quarter of 2010. First quarter growth had been 11.9%. This gives growth of 11.1% in the first half of the year. In both quarters a main driver was once again investment, led by residential construction, which soared by a good 38%.
China: Heading towards single-digit growth rates
The slowdown in growth in the second quarter was by no means a surprise. It was largely the result of the Chinese government‘s withdrawal of the crisis-fueled stimulus packages. In addition, in 2010 the government has already implemented a number of measures to curb buoyant activity in the real estate sector on the one hand and to clamp down on bank lending on the other. These measures are now starting to bite and are tempering growth.
We expect the trend towards somewhat more moderate growth to continue in the second half of the year and are penciling in “only“ single-digit growth in the coming quarters. We are sticking to our GDP forecast of 10% growth this year and 9% next.
Gregor Eder
tel.: 49 / 69 / 2 63 – 5 33 58
e-mail: [email protected]