As the Chinese statistical office announced over the weekend, industrial production rose in August by 13.9% on a year earlier. In the preceding months industry had been successively losing momentum. Having topped 18% in March, the increase in July was a “mere” 13.4%. Along with the improvement in sentiment among Chinese purchasing managers reported in early September, the positive development in August production suggests that, although economic growth in the second half of 2010 is likely to be slower than in the first half, there can be no question of a slump or indeed a hard landing. Retail sales also performed well in August, with sales of consumer goods up by 18.4% on a year earlier. The increase was thus slightly higher than the average in the first eight months of this year as a whole.
China: Further evidence against a slump
Less encouraging was the development of consumer prices in August. They climbed by 3.5% on a year earlier, with a particularly steep rise in food prices (+7.5%).
All in all we are sticking to our forecast of 10% growth this year. For the third quarter we are expecting GDP growth of 9% on a year earlier. In the fourth quarter the increase is likely to come in at 8.5%.
Gregor Eder
Tel.: 49 / 69 / 2 63 – 5 33 58
e-mail: [email protected]