In August the national purchasing managers’ index for the manufacturing sector perked up again for the first time in four months, rising from 51.2 to 51.7 points. The improvement was particularly marked for new orders, which jumped 2.2 points to 53.1. The assessment of export orders rose by one point to 52.2. As we see it, the latest survey of purchasing managers signals a continuation of the Chinese upswing in the second half of 2010, although it is likely to turn out more moderate than in the first half. The trend in industrial production supports this view: Year-on-year growth rates are still in the double digits, but are slipping month by month. Having topped 18% in March, the increase in July was a “mere” 13%.
China: Slowdown in growth but no slump
For the third quarter we are expecting GDP growth of 9% on a year earlier. In the fourth quarter the increase is likely to come in at 8.5%. Against the backdrop of the buoyant first half (+11.1%), we are sticking to our GDP forecast of 10% growth for 2010 as a whole.
Gregor Eder
Tel.: 49 / 69 / 2 63 – 5 33 58
e-mail: [email protected]