The National Statistics Office announced today that in the third quarter 2009 real GDP had expanded by a seasonally-adjusted 1.3% compared to the previous quarter, a weaker result than we had expected. Growth was driven above all by private consumption and investment. Following the steep fall in the winter half-year of 2008/2009, the latter bounced back by 6.5%, the strongest expansion in a single quarter since the first quarter 2006. Foreign trade, by contrast, was disappointing: exports rose by a mere 0.5% while imports climbed by nearly 13%. However, this marked increase illustrates the robustness of domestic demand and for this reason we caution against overinterpreting the disappointing GDP growth in the third quarter. More worrying is the fact that, so far, the Brazilian economy has profited comparatively little from the recovery in world trade. The strength of the Brazilian real in recent months most likely played a decisive role in this regard.
Brazil: Economic momentum better than the figures suggest
Together with the announcement of the third quarter GDP figures, the Statistics Office also revised the second quarter growth rate down sharply. Against this backdrop, we have lowered our economic growth forecast for this year from +0.3% to -0.3%. This forecast assumes dynamic growth in the Brazilian economy in the fourth quarter, as is being signalled by the economic data for October. For example, industrial production rose on the previous month by a strong 2.2% in seasonally-adjusted terms
Gregor Eder
tel.: 49 / 69 / 2 63 – 5 33 58
e-mail: [email protected]