For weeks now there have been growing signs that the Chinese economy is gathering pace. This is true both for soft indicators such as sentiment surveys as well as for hard economic data. For instance, the moderate pickup in retail sales seen in the third quarter 2012 continued at the beginning of the fourth quarter. The same applies to industrial production, which in October was 9.6% up on a year earlier. And exports are now also moving back up a gear. In October exports were 11.6% up on a year earlier, having practically stagnated in the summer months. The improved export performance stemmed not least from increased demand from theUSA.
All told, today’s survey results have further boosted the likelihood of a moderate acceleration in the economy in the fourth quarter. We see GDP this quarter rising by 8.1% on a year earlier, following an increase of 7.4% in the preceding quarter. For 2012 as a whole we are expecting economic growth of 7.8%. In 2013 this is likely to pick up to 8.3%.