The official PMIs for January released today do not yet reflect the magnitude of the economic concerns around the ongoing coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China.
Preliminary GDP in Q4 came out significantly below expectations at -0.3% qoq. If this figure is confirmed, real growth in Italy will have stagnated in 2019.
French GDP declined by -0.1% q/q in Q4 2019, below expectations.. Household consumption decelerated at 0.2% q/q in Q4 2019 compared with 0.4% q/q in Q3.
Q4 2019 Mexico’s GDP growth came in unchanged from Q3, which confirms our view that it has escaped technical recession, yet remaining flat for the second half of the year.
Our results show that the impact of interest rates on savings behavior is remarkably low. Demography and social policies have a stronger role to play here: precautionary and retirement provisions seem to take the lead in savings behavior in Europe.