Feb 19, 2020

As expected, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of Turkey disregarded rising inflation and once again cut its key policy one-week repo rate today, by 50bp to 10.75%.

Feb 14, 2020

After four consecutive years of strong economic growth above the potential rate, the high-flying German economy experienced a sharp deceleration in momentum in 2018. The combination of some key characteristics of Europe’s largest economy proved highly unfavorable in an environment of slowing global momentum and elevated political uncertainty.

Feb 10, 2020

On top of the upward trend in business insolvencies , we identify a record level of failures of large companies - those with over EUR50mn of turnover- with 342 major insolvencies totaling more than EUR205bn in turnover in 2019.

Feb 07, 2020

Market-based long-term inflation expectations tend to concur. They are meaningful because capital markets participants are incentivized to price them as accurately as possible: more directly than other agents, they have skin in the game.

Feb 07, 2020

Following our estimate of the economic impact on China, we look into the impact on the rest of the world: manufacturing and trade recessions are likely to continue, with a trade shock of USD26bn per week from the lockdowns in China (which should end on 9 February at the earliest), and global growth barely staying afloat at +2% in Q1 2020.

Feb 03, 2020

Hong Kong’s GDP declined again in Q4 2019, by -0.4% q/q from the previous quarter. In y/y terms, the -2.9% decline in Q4 2019 constitutes the largest quarterly slowdown since the global financial crisis.