Apr 09, 2020

We expect significant volatility around our central Brent crude price forecast of USD 41/bbl as an unprecedented inventory build battles with a hope-driven news flow.

Apr 09, 2020

High frequency data and the news flow from the U.S. allowed us to have a better sense of the size of the Covid-19 shock, the reaction of public authorities and upcoming ripple effects. In this context, we revise our U.S. GDP growth scenario from +0.5% y/y to -2.7% y/y in 2020.

Apr 03, 2020

As the Covid-19 pandemic accelerates, hardly any global industry will be spared, according to our analysis. For Q1 2020, we register a record level of 126 sector risk-rating downgrades, the highest since we began monitoring in 2012. All these downgrades come from the direct and indirect impacts of Covid-19 on demand (5 out of 10 downgrades), profitability (4 out of 10) and liquidity (1 out of 10).

Apr 02, 2020

Emerging markets have registered record capital outflows over the past few weeks, triggering very strong currency depreciations and liquidity constraints for the weakest. Outflows have markedly accelerated over the past days and currencies have reacted accordingly, especially in commodity-exporting countries and those who implemented generalized lockdowns to fight the Covid-19 pandemic.

Mar 31, 2020

In March, the German labor market appeared initially unaffected by the Covid-19 induced economic crisis, with unemployment posting a small decline compared to the previous month. But don’t be fooled by the latest figure, which looks like “the calm before the storm”.

Mar 26, 2020

In the context of the COVID-19 crisis, we estimate that turnovers of Eurozone companies could fall between -15% to -25% y/y at the peak of the crisis end of March. Operating margins could be indented by 1.0pp to 1.5pp.