May 28, 2020

Analyzing 70 pension systems in terms of sustainability and adequacy, only a handful of countries have already made their pension system demography-proof, above all Sweden, Belgium, and Denmark.

May 25, 2020

Q1’s strongest contraction in merchandise trade since Q1 2009 is only the first part of the story. Our proprietary Trade Momentum Index shows that Q2 is likely to see an even stronger contraction. Indeed, April could post a -13% y/y drop.

May 20, 2020

In response to the Covid-19 crisis, gross financing needs could amount to EUR800-900bn for the Eurozone, and only part of it will be covered by the issuance of long-term bonds. Next to state guarantees — depending on how much they translate into actual financing needs — these needs include discretionary spending (investments, tax cuts etc.), and additional expenditure on social security (automatic stabilizers). As a result, public deficits will increase.

May 19, 2020

On 18 May German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron proposed the set-up of a one-off EUR500bn strong (3.6% of 2019 EU GDP) recovery fund to help those economies hit hardest by the Covid-19 pandemic.

May 18, 2020

The Covid-19 outbreak is sending the U.S. economy into an unprecedented recession: Our central scenario anticipates a -2.7% contraction of economic activity for the year 2020, taking into account a two-month lockdown period and a U-shaped recovery starting in Q3. The impact of the crisis on the U.S. retail industry is also unprecedented and will have lasting consequences on all segments. However, we find a clear divide between food retail, which is resilient, and discretionary retail, which is cyclical, at least for the eighteen months to come.

May 15, 2020

In Europe, both new car registrations and the business climate slumped in April. High frequency indicators based on Google trends now point to a renewed interest in cars but with the exception of Germany, that won’t be enough to drive a strong revival in car purchases before Q3.