May 06, 2020

Global trade could remain below 90% of its pre-crisis level even after lockdowns are lifted and only recover gradually in H2 2020. We estimate that lockdowns and the uncoordinated deconfinement could cost merchandise trade USD2.4tn, the same as if all countries hiked their tariffs to 17%, i.e. close to levels last seen in 1994.

May 05, 2020

Capital outflows from Emerging Markets (EMs) bottomed out in March but could increase again should renewed trade tensions continue. Total portfolio outflows from EMs moderated to an estimated -USD18bn in April from the record outflow of -USD88bn in March.

Apr 30, 2020

Today’s policy announcements were geared in particular towards easing liquidity conditions but left the job unfinished with regard to boosting the ECB’s ability to backstop Eurozone debt markets.

Apr 30, 2020

The Covid-19 crisis has hit the Eurozone economy like a meteorite. According to a preliminary flash estimate provided by Eurostat, Eurozone GDP declined by -3.6% q/q in Q1 2020 – the sharpest decline on record.

Apr 24, 2020

Germany has been the first major European retail market to lift country-wide restrictions on “non-essential stores” on 20 April, putting an end to a five-week mandatory closure of a majority of non-food stores. While the move is most welcome for store owners left with zero turnover but bills to pay, we believe the industry is far from out of the woods. Taking into account segment size, seasonality and restrictions, we estimate that this five-week closure of non-essential stores could have cost German retailers as much as EUR26bn in turnover.

Apr 23, 2020

Black hole economics. Lockdowns for more than half of the global population and GDP have hit the world like a meteorite, pushing the global economy into its worst recession since WWII.