Jun 25, 2020

The US equity market rally since 23 March has surprised and wrong-footed more than one professional investor. We see four valid explanations for the current decoupling between the U.S. equity market and economic fundamentals.

Jun 19, 2020

Covid-19 is sparking a profitability shock for SMEs in the construction sector. SMEs represent the lion’s share of companies in the construction sector, with about 80% of the sector’s turnover in Europe.

Jun 17, 2020

In Europe, blanket job-retention schemes helped prevent mass unemployment in the short-term, contrary to the U.S. experience: Close to a third of Europe’s workforce or 45 million jobs in the five largest economies alone are currently benefiting from national employment support schemes.

Jun 12, 2020

Wall Street is responding faster and faster to counter-cyclical policies, as if it was 100% sure that past experience is a sure guide to the future. In the context of the Covid-19 crisis, the response time of the U.S. and global equity markets to the beginning of the implementation of counter-cyclical monetary and fiscal policies has indeed shrunk to zero.

Jun 09, 2020

Global demand in air transport will not return to its pre-Covid-19 level before 2023. The unprecedented slump in international travel will make 2020 a terrible year for the air transportation industry.

Jun 04, 2020

As the Covid-19 pandemic pushes the global economy into the worst recession since WWII, systemic social risk could become a more important factor of political risk and worsen the business climate in some countries.