Sep 10, 2020

The Covid-19 pandemic marked a turning point for ‘unconventional’ monetary policies in Emerging Markets (EMs), several of which embarked on government bond purchase programs to address market dislocations and ease monetary conditions in the short run.

Sep 09, 2020

The spreads have been closed but the ECB’s job is nowhere near done yet: Tomorrow’s policy meeting will be all about cues for the ECB’s game plan to tackle mounting deflation risks and a strong euro in the context of an uncertain economic recovery. As if the ECB did not already have enough on its plate with the unprecedented Covid-19-related growth shock, which led to the announcement of additional asset purchases to the tune of EUR1,350bn, it will now need to decide how to deal with two additional headaches to its growing list of worries.

Sep 03, 2020

Given the sharp setback in consumer spending in H1 2020, which far exceeded anything seen during the Great Financial Crisis as well as the Eurozone debt crisis, without a meaningful rebound in private consumption, economic recovery prospects will remain rather dim.

Sep 03, 2020

The unprecedented fiscal stimulus plans launched by European governments this summer (phase II to relaunch growth engines after phase I emergency relief programs) should help to boost economic growth by +2.4pp in France, +2pp in Germany and +0.7pp in Italy over 2021-22.

Sep 03, 2020

The second edition of the “Allianz Pulse”, a survey to check the mood in France, Germany and Italy, reveals deep pessimism: 82% of the French, 77% of the Italian and 49% of the German respondents consider the economic outlook as bad.

Jul 31, 2020

The Covid-19-related trough has been reached. The GDP figures for the second quarter confirmed the expected historic slump in economic activity in the Eurozone and the U.S. and the different recovery speeds across advanced economies.