Oct 15, 2020

As Covid19-related restrictions are retightened, we expect key European economies to contract again in the final quarter of 2020. We forecast GDP to drop by -1.3% q/q in Spain, -1.1% q/q in France and–1.0% q/q in the Netherlands.

Oct 14, 2020

A CBAM is a game-changer for global climate policy. The need for financing the pandemic recovery package has jump-started the process of introducing an EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM).

Oct 12, 2020

Complementary indicators point to increasing concentration in the S&P 500 market rally: A five-year-long outperformance of the (capitalization-weighted) S&P 500 relative to the equally-weighted S&P 500 and a six-month-long divergence between the (capitalization-weighted) S&P 500 and the ratio of rising-to-falling stocks as well as a fall in entropy, a better metrics of concentration within the S&P 500

Oct 09, 2020

Rising Covid-19 infections will hold back the recovery of passenger demand in H2 2020. This has dealt a blow to new plane deliveries, especially for wide-bodied jets.

Oct 08, 2020

On top of emergency liquidity measures provided to European SMEs to fight Covid-19, we estimate that Italian SMEs need EUR70bn of recapitalization, French SMEs EUR30bn and German SMEs EUR3bn - after excluding pre-existing zombies.

Oct 06, 2020

An unprecedented rise in the inactive population since February has seen more than 30 million workers going missing from official unemployment statistics across selected OECD and Emerging Market economies. Because of this” hidden unemployment,” the true monthly hit to household consumption could be underestimated by USD14bn.