Oct 08, 2020

On top of emergency liquidity measures provided to European SMEs to fight Covid-19, we estimate that Italian SMEs need EUR70bn of recapitalization, French SMEs EUR30bn and German SMEs EUR3bn - after excluding pre-existing zombies.

Oct 06, 2020

An unprecedented rise in the inactive population since February has seen more than 30 million workers going missing from official unemployment statistics across selected OECD and Emerging Market economies. Because of this” hidden unemployment,” the true monthly hit to household consumption could be underestimated by USD14bn.

Oct 02, 2020

Central banks, allegedly in the front line? As the pandemic brought large swathes of the global economy to a standstill, both the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank started loading their respective policy bazookas. Both central banks’ decisions triggered an extreme market rotation into corporate credit (especially in the high yielding segment). Taking into account that the U.S. corporate credit market is ~2.5x that of the Eurozone, as of today the ECB has intervened with the double firepower compared to the Fed.

Oct 01, 2020

The immediate impact of the Covid-19 shock on inflation has been decidedly deflationary, but in light of the brewing cocktail of post-pandemic economic trends, the probability of an inflationary overshoot has also risen. What would it take for a scenario of persistently high inflation (probability: 15%) to materialize?

Sep 29, 2020

The U.S. elections will spark a period of high uncertainty and market volatility until the end of the year. It could take one to two months after 03 November to finalize the results due to the record high use of mail-in ballots amid the Covid-19 pandemic.

Sep 24, 2020

Stop-and-go containment measures confirm a return to normal in 2022. After strong post-lockdown catch-up effects, we expect the recovery to slow in Q4 2020 and Q1 2021 as distancing measures tighten again and ongoing job shedding keeps spend-ing and investment in check.