Oct 20, 2020

The odds for a no-deal Brexit at the end of 2020 have considerably increased to 45%. While we do still expect a last-minute compromise, given the social, political and economic consequences of such an outcome on top of the continuing Covid-19 crisis in the UK and across Europe in general, a Hard Brexit could cost as much as EUR33bn in annual exports to the EU.

Oct 19, 2020

China’s exporters have been gaining market share since they exited the Covid-19 crisis. Out of the top 20 exporters in the world, China’s total market share now stands at c.25%, compared to an average of c.20% over 2017-19.

Oct 15, 2020

As Covid19-related restrictions are retightened, we expect key European economies to contract again in the final quarter of 2020. We forecast GDP to drop by -1.3% q/q in Spain, -1.1% q/q in France and–1.0% q/q in the Netherlands.

Oct 14, 2020

A CBAM is a game-changer for global climate policy. The need for financing the pandemic recovery package has jump-started the process of introducing an EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM).

Oct 12, 2020

Complementary indicators point to increasing concentration in the S&P 500 market rally: A five-year-long outperformance of the (capitalization-weighted) S&P 500 relative to the equally-weighted S&P 500 and a six-month-long divergence between the (capitalization-weighted) S&P 500 and the ratio of rising-to-falling stocks as well as a fall in entropy, a better metrics of concentration within the S&P 500

Oct 09, 2020

Rising Covid-19 infections will hold back the recovery of passenger demand in H2 2020. This has dealt a blow to new plane deliveries, especially for wide-bodied jets.