Nov 11, 2020

With the Covid-19 crisis, zero interest rates will become entrenched in Europe for the time being. Besides the (negative) long-term effects – rising inequality, distorted financial markets and misallocation of resources – there are also direct income effects.

Nov 10, 2020

China played a crucial role in the global economic recovery after the 2008-09 financial crisis, but the post Covid-19 recovery will be different: We expect China to slow its international engagement over the next few years.

Nov 09, 2020

Joe Biden won the U.S. Presidential election, thanks to slim victories in major swing states. However, without a clear Congressional majority, he will not have as much leeway as expected, even if executive orders, his long experience in negotiating bipartisan agreements and Republicans’ fatigue with partisanship could play a positive role.

Nov 06, 2020

As of 06 November, Joe Biden appears to have the higher chance of becoming the next U.S. President, with the Senate possibly remaining in the hands of the Republicans. We expect President Trump to use every possible means to contest the election results if they appear to be against him. A judiciary battle could last until 08 December, potentially requiring the intervention of the Supreme Court.

Nov 05, 2020

Lockdown 2.0 or ‘lockdown light’ in Europe embodies the stop-and-go strategy, which should follow epidemic cycles until a post-vaccine return to normal in 2022. Yet these new restrictions are not a replay of Spring 2020 as their economic hit to Q4 2020 GDP should prove 30-60% less severe.

Nov 03, 2020

For the EU to reach its target of climate neutrality by 2050, they will have to change their behavior, but our research shows on average 46% of French and 44% of Germans respondents are not prepared to pay more for climate-friendly products.