Nov 05, 2020

Lockdown 2.0 or ‘lockdown light’ in Europe embodies the stop-and-go strategy, which should follow epidemic cycles until a post-vaccine return to normal in 2022. Yet these new restrictions are not a replay of Spring 2020 as their economic hit to Q4 2020 GDP should prove 30-60% less severe.

Nov 03, 2020

For the EU to reach its target of climate neutrality by 2050, they will have to change their behavior, but our research shows on average 46% of French and 44% of Germans respondents are not prepared to pay more for climate-friendly products.

Oct 29, 2020

Over the long run, the Chinese economy is facing two key challenges: declining potential growth and a deteriorating external environment. Our growth potential model suggests China’s GDP growth is likely to average between +3.8% and +4.9% over the coming decade (after +7.6% in the 2010s), due to declining labor supply and slowing productivity and capital investment.

Oct 28, 2020

Sporting goods are one of the rare winners from the Covid-19 outbreak amid a decimated discretionary retail industry: we expect U.S. retail sales of sporting goods to hit an all-time high of USD48bn in 2020.

Oct 27, 2020

The transatlantic yield spread between the U.S. and the Eurozone narrowed by over 80bp until mid-September but has clearly re-widened lately. The prevailing view among market participants seems to be that this divergence reflects a divergence in economic momentum as the Eurozone is heading for a double dip.

Oct 21, 2020

Covid-19 will upend the old pecking order in the global economy – and in climate policy. China is not only leading the economic recovery post-Covid-19 but also seems to be shifting from laggard to leader in climate policy, with President Xi Jinping’s pledge for net-zero emissions by 2060.