Apr 15, 2021

Will Covid-19 be the inflation game-changer in 2021? We are firmly in the “reflation” not “inflation” camp: expect a temporary inflation overshoot in the coming months, rather than consumer prices galloping out of control.

Apr 12, 2021

The Fed will start to normalize its monetary rather sooner than later. With the recent USD1.9trn fiscal stimulus package and a new USD2.3trn infrastructure program (our estimate of what could represent the amount of the Build Back Better program), US GDP growth is likely to reach +6.1% in 2021 and +4.1% in 2022.

Apr 07, 2021

In 2021, Latin American countries could be holding "excess" FX reserves of around 8.8% of GDP, with an opportunity cost to economic activity as high as 0.7% of GDP. Redirecting excess reserves to long-term productive investments would help Latin America bridge its infrastructure gap, boost productivity and thus enhance the business environment, creating more opportunities for companies.

Apr 06, 2021

Biden’s USD2.3trn ‘Build Back Better’ infrastructure plan represents the second stage of a three-phase stimulus rocket and will be a long-term driver of growth in the US.

Apr 01, 2021

The global recovery is on the right track albeit conditional on key differentiating elements across countries. Global GDP is expected to rebound by +5.1% in 2021, with one fourth of the recovery being driven by the US, while China should contribute less to growth by progressively adopting a less accommodative economic policy. In 2022, world GDP growth should reach +4.0%. Europe should recover its Covid-19 losses only at this horizon against H2 2021 for the US. The race to recovery will hinge on seven key obstacles.

Mar 26, 2021

On 23 March 2021, a 400-metre-long container ship ran aground in the Suez Canal in Egypt. We calculate that each day of immobilization could cost global trade USD6bn-10bn. The problem is that the Suez Canal blockage is the straw that breaks global trade’s back. Supply-chain disruptions since the beginning of the year (shortages of containers, semi-conductors, etc.) could cost real trade growth -1.4pp or roughly USD230bn of direct impact, on top of the immobilization in the Suez Canal.