Jun 09, 2021

Vaccine security will shape the grand reopening. While advanced economies delivered on immunization campaigns, vaccine hesitancy and second-generation vaccines are first-order priorities. In the meantime, under-vaccination in Asia and in Emerging Markets may cause desynchronized growth paths.

Jun 02, 2021

As global trade recovers, accelerating input prices will increase European corporates’ financing needs by EUR70bn in 2021, the equivalent of a -3pp loss in margins. In this context, 2022 could bring a reality check for European non-financial corporates as the grace periods for Covid-19 debt are set to end, along with most state-support mechanisms.

May 31, 2021

Velocity is a crucial but often overlooked dimension of money. Contemporary data from China show that the velocity of money in equity markets is highly unstable and pro-cyclical. Our observations cast a shadow on the alleged omnipotence of quantitative easing (QE).

May 27, 2021

For the 7th edition of our Export Barometer survey, we asked more than 300 French exporters about their 2020 performance, their outlook for 2021 and the main risks and threats to their activity. The results reveal that strong winds of change lie ahead.

May 26, 2021

European industrial autonomy in semiconductors is far out of reach. The recent shortage of semiconductors has highlighted one of Europe’s vulnerabilities, prompting the European Commission to set targets to bring the region’s share of global semiconductor production to 20% by 2030 and to ramp up chip production using the most advanced manufacturing technologies.

May 20, 2021

The fiscal version of “whatever it takes” triggered a notable deterioration in public finances across the Eurozone in 2020. However, the picture has never proven more heterogeneous at the country level: Seven countries (Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain, Cyprus, France and Belgium, together representing more than 50% of Eurozone GDP) now boast debt-to-GDP ratios close to or above 120% of GDP i.e. twice the Maastricht debt target.