Jun 17, 2021

The Covid-19 pandemic not only caused millions of premature deaths, but it had also an impact on the number of births. In high-income countries the number of live births declined to record lows in 2020 as pregnancies were postponed.

Jun 15, 2021

After reflation, stagflation? While in the real economy the “Grand Reopening” party has just started, bond markets are seemingly positioned for a prolonged stagflationary scenario. Headline CPI reached 5% y/y in May but yields retreated.

Jun 11, 2021

Ahead of the G7 summit this weekend, we looked into who will win and who will lose from the recently proposed global minimum tax rate of at least 15% for companies. Though the eventual implementation of this agreement will take a long time because of ratification issues, the initiative represents a unique moment of global fiscal convergence. In the long run, the global minimum tax rate for MNEs could impact economies’ potential growth via different channels.

Jun 09, 2021

Vaccine security will shape the grand reopening. While advanced economies delivered on immunization campaigns, vaccine hesitancy and second-generation vaccines are first-order priorities. In the meantime, under-vaccination in Asia and in Emerging Markets may cause desynchronized growth paths.

Jun 02, 2021

As global trade recovers, accelerating input prices will increase European corporates’ financing needs by EUR70bn in 2021, the equivalent of a -3pp loss in margins. In this context, 2022 could bring a reality check for European non-financial corporates as the grace periods for Covid-19 debt are set to end, along with most state-support mechanisms.

May 31, 2021

Velocity is a crucial but often overlooked dimension of money. Contemporary data from China show that the velocity of money in equity markets is highly unstable and pro-cyclical. Our observations cast a shadow on the alleged omnipotence of quantitative easing (QE).