Sep 02, 2021

Despite the roaring return of inflation in H2 2021, the ECB should not flinch at next week’s policy meeting. In particular, it should refrain from taking an unneccesary bet on how the pandemic, the economy and yields (and in turn US monetary policy) will develop over the next quarter by pre-committing to a lower PEPP purchase pace.

Sep 01, 2021

In 2020, state support overcompensated for the Covid-19 shock, reducing the number of fragile SMEs by more than 8,000 in Germany, France and the UK. Yet, we find that 7%, 13% and 15% of SMEs in the three countries are still at risk of insolvency in the next four years.

Jul 30, 2021

The strong rebound in European Q2 GDP growth highlights that there is significant room to grow in the sectors most exposed to Covid-19 restrictions. We expect unleashed pent-up demand to provide a boost to these sectors through 2021, especially in Spain, France and Belgium.

Jul 28, 2021

Demographic change poses a formidable challenge for Australia: Despite only a modest increase in the old-age dependency ratio, the number of people aged 65 and older will almost double from 4.1mn today to 7.4mn within the next 30 years.

Jul 27, 2021

An unprecedented and intensifying shortage of materials, notably semiconductors, is creating a supply-demand mismatch in Europe's automotive sector that could last until H1 2022. This creates a unique window of opportunity for carmakers to raise prices by +3-6% after nearly 20 years of constraints.

Jul 22, 2021

ECB confirms dovish bias of its new strategy. In its closely-watched pre-holiday meeting, coming close on the heels of its strategy review, the ECB offered its first indications on how the new inflation target - raised from “close to but below 2%” to a symmetric medium-term target of 2% - will be implemented.