Oct 01, 2021

The discussion about excess saving could (and should) better distinguish the two components of what it is usually called saving, namely saving proper – money that is spent, but not on consumption -, and hoarding - money that is not spent at all.

Sep 28, 2021

When the world’s top central bankers virtually convene at this year’s ECB Annual Forum, the scale and duration of the current surge of inflation will invariably be high on the agenda. But we continue to believe that the current cyclical price pressures are unlikely to morph into a long-lasting trend.

Sep 23, 2021

Political change is upon Germany, but no major policy overhaul is in the cards. After the elections on 26 September 2021, Chancellor Angela Merkel will be re-placed after 16 years in power. The transition takes place in a highly fragmented political context, which will likely see the first three-party coalition emerge at the federal level and complicate the government-formation process.

Sep 22, 2021

Climate change is the dominant challenge of the 21st century but combatting it will require more than just huge investments: far-reaching individual behavioral changes are also essential.

Sep 17, 2021

Global growth remains strong but increasingly uneven amid evolving virus dynamics and the gradual removal of policy support. Growth momentum softened over the summer despite a positive impulse from trade. The delta-related uncertainty and soft stops will cost (only) -0.2 to -0.5pp of GDP growth in advanced economies in 2021.

Sep 15, 2021

The Covid-19 crisis has fast-forwarded Europe’s e-commerce transition by four to five years, especially in food retail: In the top five markets, e-commerce penetration now ranges from between 3% to 11% of grocery sales. But we estimate that every percentage of grocery sales moving online threatens EUR13.6bn in sales and up to EUR1.9bn in profits (4% of total).