Apr 21, 2022

The war in Ukraine has put pressure on European corporate margins. The conflict has sent (energy) commodity prices soaring, amplified existing supply-chain disruptions and increased uncertainty weighing on investment.

Apr 20, 2022

With provinces accounting for nearly a quarter of GDP under partial or full lockdown, the cost of China’s zero-Covid policy is climbing. We expect that omicron outbreaks in Q1 and April will have cost -0.4pp of GDP growth in 2022.

Apr 13, 2022

The flattening (and partially inverted) US yield curve is signaling rising recession fears. There are signs that a rapid hiking cycle could narrow the window for a “soft landing” as a slowing economy amid elevated energy prices makes a recession increasingly probable.

Apr 08, 2022

Financial tightening in advanced economies and slowing trade growth have created less favorable conditions for emerging market sovereigns, which have been amplified by the effects of the war in Ukraine on commodity prices.

Apr 06, 2022

Is the market underestimating the risk of a surprise outcome in the French elections? Unlike 2017 the delicate phase for investors lies between the first and second round. A significant repricing of the political risk premium could occur in case we see (i) a massive shift in second-round voting intentions against incumbent Emmanuel Macron and/or (ii) a risk of massive abstention.

Apr 01, 2022

Climate policy is the missing piece of the puzzle ahead of France’s Presidential elections. France has set ambitious targets to combat climate change, including reducing net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by -40% by 2030 compared to 1990.