Apr 28, 2022

After an election campaign dominated by the topics of dwindling purchasing power and surging energy prices, it is now time for an economic reality check in France. The first 100 days of Macron’s second term need to establish a roadmap to tackle three issues in urgent need of reforms.

Apr 26, 2022

Movements in interest rates alone cannot explain fluctuations in the earnings yield. We find that two variables – the long-term risk-free interest rate and, more surprisingly, the “expected” rate of capital gains (proxied by a weighted average of past equity returns) – explain the cyclically adjusted earnings yield of U.S. equities (S&P 500), which has dropped to a record low.

Apr 21, 2022

How is the current international environment affecting exporters and their willingness to trade? Allianz Trade, the world leader in trade credit insurance, decided to check the pulse of companies in the United States, China, the United Kingdom, France, Italy and Germany. Two surveys were carried out – one before the start of the invasion of Ukraine and one after, involving nearly 3,000 corporates.

Apr 21, 2022

The war in Ukraine has put pressure on European corporate margins. The conflict has sent (energy) commodity prices soaring, amplified existing supply-chain disruptions and increased uncertainty weighing on investment.

Apr 20, 2022

With provinces accounting for nearly a quarter of GDP under partial or full lockdown, the cost of China’s zero-Covid policy is climbing. We expect that omicron outbreaks in Q1 and April will have cost -0.4pp of GDP growth in 2022.

Apr 13, 2022

The flattening (and partially inverted) US yield curve is signaling rising recession fears. There are signs that a rapid hiking cycle could narrow the window for a “soft landing” as a slowing economy amid elevated energy prices makes a recession increasingly probable.