Sep 30, 2022

In recent years, Eurozone governments borrowing more and more seemed to matter less and less as falling interest rates made high and rising debt levels less burdensome.

Sep 29, 2022

The increasingly hawkish US Fed has triggered a “reverse currency war” as central banks tighten their stance more than would otherwise be necessary if inflationary pressures were less universal.

Sep 22, 2022

The US housing market is adjusting to the new reality of higher-for-longer interest rates. Interest rates are rising rapidly – the Fed delivered a third consecutive 75bp hike during the September FOMC meeting – and unlikely to decrease much in 2023 as the FOMC will be keen to restore its inflation-fighting credibility.

Sep 20, 2022

2022 will be a record year for container shipping companies. We expect the sector’s revenue to jump by +19% y/y and its operating cash flow to grow by +8% y/y. While freight rates have fallen -32% year-to-date, they are still well above the pre-pandemic average.

Sep 15, 2022

As Russian gas supply is coming to a halt, the fight against inflation is raging and political uncertainties coalesce, our previous adverse scenario has become reality. The trifecta of lower growth, higher inflation and higher rates will hit even harder.

Sep 13, 2022

The automotive industry has been the number one casualty of the global semiconductor crunch: We estimate that it led to a shortfall of about 18mn vehicles around the world. Europe’s automotive sector has been hit the hardest, and its weak semiconductor sector did not help. We estimate that the semiconductor crunch will cost Europe about EUR100bn over 2021 and 2022.