Nov 28, 2024

The 3-3-3 Secretary Bessent paradox in the US, France’s budget turmoil and Central Europe losing competitiveness

Nov 27, 2024

Retail sales are still strong in the US and recovering in Europe, but uncertainty could derail the ongoing improvement.

Nov 21, 2024

What President Trump means for energy, earnings winter for European corporates, and taking stock after 29 COPs

Nov 18, 2024

In 2024, societies are showing more signs of stability and social resilience, but the frequency and severity of civil unrest is increasing in several countries

Nov 15, 2024

The cost of uncertainty in Germany, the finishing touch of the Chinese stimulus and all eyes on Brazil while this COP is in Baku

Nov 14, 2024

A renewed but contained trade war could cost global trade growth 0.6pp in 2026, while a full-blown trade war would cost up to 2.4pps. In his second term as President, Donald Trump is likely to increase tariffs on Chinese and other strategic imports (to 25% for the former and to 5% for the rest of the world, excluding Mexico and Canada), which would decrease global trade by -0.6pp in 2026 as most measures would kick-in from the second half of 2025.