Nov 15, 2024

The cost of uncertainty in Germany, the finishing touch of the Chinese stimulus and all eyes on Brazil while this COP is in Baku

Nov 14, 2024

A renewed but contained trade war could cost global trade growth 0.6pp in 2026, while a full-blown trade war would cost up to 2.4pps. In his second term as President, Donald Trump is likely to increase tariffs on Chinese and other strategic imports (to 25% for the former and to 5% for the rest of the world, excluding Mexico and Canada), which would decrease global trade by -0.6pp in 2026 as most measures would kick-in from the second half of 2025.

Nov 07, 2024

The return of Donald Trump and the implications of a Republican Sweep scenario

Oct 31, 2024

Fed taking it slow, UK budget done, diverging growth in the Eurozone and market volatility before and after the US elections

Oct 24, 2024

From agreement to action at COP16 in Cali, nuclear energy and the race to net zero and the “Big Stay” in Eurozone labor markets

Oct 22, 2024

Despite major headwinds, the residential construction segment has remained resilient and lower interest rates could revive prices and activity in 2025. Housing starts and residential building permits have been going down in most countries over 2024.