Projections for European government debt

The acute phase of the financial crisis is over. In the EMU economies at the center of the crisis - with the exception of Greece - the economic situation has already improved considerably. But the European debt crisis is far from over. A large number of EMU member states are still sitting on huge mountains of debt.

Our calculations regarding the development of sovereign debt in the three major EMU economies and the four crisis countries show that, in many countries, the process involved in achieving a sustainable reduction in the government debt ratio will be a very long and drawn-out one. Germany and Ireland are the only two countries that will manage to adhere to the 60% debt level criterion set out in the Stability and Growth Pact by 2031. The progress made in cutting debt relies heavily on assumptions regarding fiscal discipline, economic growth and the average interest rates on the debt.

Our interactive Debt Tool allows you to simulate the development in the debt ratios of selected eurozone economies by applying various assumptions, and to compare the figures with our forecasts.

Actual values
Average
2001 to 2016
Allianz
assumptions
2017 to 2031
Alternative
assumptions
2017 to 2031
Real GDP growth(?)
(%)
Inflation rate(?)
(%)
Primary balance(?)
(as % of GDP)
Average interest rate on gov't debt(?)
(%)

Sources: Datastream, own calculations and forecasts