"Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are and will remain a main pillar of the German economy," said Michael Heise, Allianz Group Chief Economist, citing a new forecast by Dresdner Bank.

Economists at Dresdner Bank estimate that SME sales will grow around 4.75 percent this year and slightly under 4 percent in 2009. This forecast depends on the probable further decline in the price of oil, a key economic factor for SMEs. "In view of the robust demand for workers, there could be bottlenecks in finding highly qualified people in some industries," warned Heise.

In 2009, Germany's SMEs could – despite summer-time slowing of growth in mid 2008 – look back on five consecutive years of expansion. As expected, the price of oil has notably declined in recent weeks and is tending toward the 90-US dollar mark by the end of 2008, predicts the bank's Chief Economist. If the price of oil continues to fall in the coming months, the increase in general prices will gradually weaken and also relieve burdens for consumers. This would extend economic growth into 2009. Although the economy has already peaked and growth is now slowing, Dresdner Bank economists see no danger of a recession for Germany's SMEs.

With this in mind, the economists are also optimistic about the continuing growth of SME employment. At this time, there are no indications of a change in the current trend. From the end of 2005 to the end of 2007, Germany's SMEs have already created over one million new jobs subject to the country's social insurance system. The biggest share of these jobs was generated by larger SMEs. Germany's 30 DAX-listed companies, in contrast, eliminated 5000 domestic jobs in the past two years and taken together, all large companies created only 40,000 new full time jobs.

Dresdner Bank economists estimate that in this and next year, over 400,000 new jobs subject to social insurance contributions will be created by small and medium-sized businesses, of which more than 200,000 had already been created by mid-2008. It’s important that even the smallest and smaller enterprises, in line with their importance for Germany’s labor market, do their part to boost general employment. Around 19 million people, or nearly half of all employees and self-employed persons in Germany, work in enterprises with fewer than 50 employees.

Diese Aussagen stehen, wie immer, unter unserem Vorbehalt bei Zukunftsaussagen, der Ihnen oben rechts zur Verfügung gestellt wird.