Michael Heise: The companies affected by the latest crisis had massive commitments in the markets for structured loans, primarily US real-estate loans, and in the derivative markets. This exposure led to huge losses and resulted in a serious requirement for liquidity and capital. The markets no longer wanted to meet these demands in the context of the general situation with high levels of uncertainty and aversion to risk. The only remaining hope was provided by the state, but the government was not always prepared to step in.

Heise: We are still experiencing the consequences of the same crisis. The subprime market was the epicenter of the earthquake and the shock waves are still rolling over the financial markets. But subprime mortgages were only the trigger that brought to light the fundamental mistakes that had been made in the financial systems in recent years: primarily a readiness to take too many risks, lack of transparency in product structures and too much credit leverage.

Heise: The financial industry will be different after the crisis has passed. Business conduct and business models will change, risk will return to having an appropriate price. But in particular we will see wide-ranging consolidation. This offers companies like Allianz opportunities to continue strengthening their position with respect to the competition.

Heise: There is no reason for our customers to be concerned. Allianz has no difficulties in meeting its obligations. We do not have a liquidity or capital bottleneck. This strength – particularly in times of turbulence – is what the Allianz brand stands for. This should give us additional momentum for the future in the competition for customers’ goodwill. However, it is equally clear that Allianz cannot be successful and buck market trends in all areas where customers’ money is managed in the capital markets.

Heise: Up to now, the credit supply for companies has been continuing to operate reasonably well. The resolute reaction of the central banks has undoubtedly also made a contribution, particularly in the USA. The longer the uncertainty continues in the markets, the greater the probability that there will also be turbulence in this area. However, the oil price shock has unquestionably placed a greater burden on the real economy in recent months than the financial crisis has.

Heise: Whoever wins the election in the USA, Wall Street will have to adjust its mindset to politicians taking a tougher approach to regulating the financial markets. In general terms, it is likely that politicians will once again adopt a stronger regulatory role. We can only hope that they don’t throw the baby out with the bathwater.

Heise: We have come a long way in correcting previous excesses. Banks have recognized impairments of more than 500 billion US dollars and raised 300 billion US dollars of new capital, they have cut their balance-sheet totals and they have reduced supply in the market. The US real-estate market is approaching equilibrium, and other markets are already oversold. The stream of bad news is likely to tail off slowly and investors will regain their confidence, particularly in view of the fact that the state is providing massive support. On the other hand, the many shocks have left deep-seated uncertainty in their wake. Markets will have to wait until next year before conditions return to normal.

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