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Outlook for the Allianz Group
In macro-economic terms, conditions are challenging for business and consumers. Both are confronted with weak and volatile capital markets, increasing inflation, high oil prices, the risk of recession or even stagflation, a weak U.S. dollar, illiquid credit markets, falling property prices and increasing interest rates. This has created a sentiment of risk-aversion in the minds of consumers and tough trading conditions for businesses.
As discussed in our first quarter 2008 results, the further achievement of our targets was subject to a positive swing in financial markets. This has not materialized up to now. Although our underlying fundamentals remain healthy, these further deteriorating markets also affect Allianz.
We expect this difficult market environment to continue to 2009, therefore our 2006 long-term operating profit growth target of 10 % CAGR1 through 2009 cannot be maintained.
Due to expected market conditions accurate earnings predictions, especially for Banking, are not feasible. However our underlying operating profitability in Insurance and Asset Management is stable enough to generate a run rate before Banking of 9 billion euros plus in 2008 and 2009.
As always, natural catastrophes and adverse developments in the capital markets, as well as the factors stated in our cautionary note regarding forward-looking statements, may severely impact our results of operations.
1 Compound Annual Growth Rate
Cautionary note regarding forward-looking statements
The statements contained herein may include statements of future expectations and other forward-looking statements that are based on management’s current views and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements. In addition to statements which are forward-looking by reason of context, the words “may”, “will”, “should”, “expects”, “plans”, “intends”, “anticipates”, “believes”, “estimates”, “predicts”, “potential”, or “continue” and similar expressions identify forwardlooking statements. Actual results, performance or events may differ materially from those in such statements due to, without limitation, (i) general economic conditions, including in particular economic conditions in the Allianz Group’s core business and core markets, (ii) performance of financial markets, including emerging markets, (iii) the frequency and severity of insured loss events, (iv) mortalit  and morbidity levels and trends, (v) persistency levels, (vi) the extent of credit defaults, (vii) interest rate levels, (viii) currency exchange rates including the Euro/U.S. Dollar exchange rate, (ix) changing levels of competition, (x) changes in laws and regulations, including monetary convergence and the European Monetary Union, (xi) changes in the policies of central banks and/or foreign governments, (xii) the impact of acquisitions, including related integration issues, (xiii) reorganization measures, and (xiv) general competitive factors, in each case on a local, regional, national and/or global basis. Many of these factors may be more likely to occur, or more pronounced, as a result of terrorist activities and their consequences. The matters discussed herein may also be affected by risks and uncertainties described from time to time in Allianz SE’s filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The company assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statement.
Source: Interim report 2nd quarter 2008, released on August 7, 2008.
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